AVISON YOUNG

Canada Hotel Market

2021 Review and 2022 Outlook

Looking ahead

For the last two years, the hospitality industry has been extremely challenged by the ebbs and flows of government lockdowns and lack of clarity on a path to recovery. This has been taxing those invested in the hospitality industry but there are signs of improvement on the horizon.

Performance metrics in 2021 were stronger than in 2020 and, over the past year, vaccines have been proven to curb the worst impacts of the virus for most people. The resort industry continued to be in high demand as consumers sought regional escapes and this is expected to continue in the near term. Prior to the impact of the Omicron variant, restaurants were getting busier, and workers were starting to return to their offices, albeit not in droves.

Domestic and international air travel started to pick up, although travel to Canada was limited due to restrictions. The busiest day for cross-border travel in December 2019 recorded 33,806 travelers, while December 2020’s high point was 1,984 – representing a 94% drop. However, the high point in December 2021 was 20,599 daily travelers – demonstrating a significant bounce-back in tourism activity, but still 39% below 2019 levels.

As vaccination programs continue, hospitalizations decline and health effects of the pandemic wane, consumer confidence is expected to return, leading to increasing travel both for business and leisure.

Laura Baxter, Director of Hospitality Analytics, Canada for CoStar Group, offers some perspective on the outlook for the hospitality sector in 2022: “The national forecast prepared by STR expects full-year occupancy in 2022 to be 60% and ADR to reach $156 resulting in revenue per available room (RevPAR) of $93, up 61% on 2021,” said Baxter. “When compared to 2019 results, occupancy is forecast to be down only five percentage points while ADR and RevPAR are expected to be 5% and 13% lower than pre-pandemic results, respectively.” Some factors that could impact hotel performance and valuations in 2022 include:

  • The anticipated rise in interest rates
  • Inflation due to continued supply chain issues and increased consumer demand
  • Inventive government stimulus programs such as the Ontario “staycation” tax credit
  • Persistent labour challenges
  • The impact of depleted hotel capital reserve accounts
  • Availability of active hospitality lenders across markets and asset classes
  • Owners’ ability to fund operating shortfalls in the absence of government support programs
  • Creative use of space (indoor and outdoor) to capture new revenue sources
  • The pace of event and group booking activity

A slow recovery is anticipated in the first two quarters of 2022, but activity is expected to pick up significantly into the summer months and finish the year strongly.

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Curtis Gallagher* Principal, Canadian Hospitality Lead +1 416.673.4018 curtis.gallagher@avisonyoung.com

Graeme White* Associate +1 647.598.2318 graeme.white@avisonyoung.com

Bobby Singh* Associate +1 905.283.2326 bobby.singh@avisonyoung.com

Haig Basmadjian Senior Associate +1 403.232.4316 haig.basmadjian@avisonyoung.com

*Sales Representative

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© 2022 Avison Young Commercial Real Estate Services, LP, Brokerage. All rights reserved. E. & O.E.: Some of the data in this report has been gathered from third-party sources and has not been independently verified by Avison Young. Avison Young makes no warranties or representations as to the completeness or accuracy thereof. Investment sales and hotel market data sourced from Avison Young, Altus Data Studio and STR.