UK CITIES RECOVERY INDEX
Newcastle
Updated: 16th February
UK CITIES RECOVERY INDEX
Index + DART for Newcastle
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Overview
The Recovery Index for Newcastle has seen gradual upticks over the last month, reaching 91.6 on February 7th – up from 78.3 a month previous. The city continues to track above the national index, which presently sits at 83.1 – and is in fact the city in which the recovery index is currently highest out of all markets monitored.
The Recovery Index for Newcastle has been underpinned by the relative resilience of several indices compared to other cities, particularly for the Mobility, Retail and Return to Office indices.
UK CITIES RECOVERY INDEX
Sector Indices + DART for Newcastle
Newcastle Sector Indices
Commercial Activity
- The Commercial Activity Sector Index for Newcastle read at 94.4 on 7th February, which is unchanged on a month earlier, but well above the national index figure of 89. The Commercial Activity Sector Index has been relatively stable in Newcastle since the end of summer 2021 – with no great fluctuations witnessed over the interceding period.
Hotel & Leisure
- The Hotel and Leisure Index for Newcastle is currently reading 80.9 – marginally ahead of the National figure of 77.1; albeit lagging behind a few other major regional cities. As with most of the markets we monitor, the city saw a sharp drop-off in Hotel & Leisure activity across December and early January – with the index falling from 90.8 on November 15th to 73.9 on January 13th.
Mobility
- The Mobility Sector Index for Newcastle declined substantially from 125.6 to 87.3 over the month to 10th January, down from 152.4 in September. Restrictions due to Omicron can account for much of this, with sub-indices relating to traffic congestion, walking and overall transit all seeing sharp declines. More recently, however, the Index has rebounded, and stands at 117 as of February 7th.
Residential
- The Residential Sector Index has been relatively stable over the last few months, moving only marginally week-to-week; and settling at 109.5 on February 7th – up from 105.9 a month prior. Newcastle’s Residential Sector Index is ahead of all other markets monitored – thanks largely to the fact that new EPC registrations are a little ahead of pre-lockdown levels.
Retail
- Newcastle’s Retail Index was recovering slowly but surely across 2021 until the imposition of further lockdown measures caused a fortnight-long rupture in the trajectory. The Index moved from 104.9 on December 23rd to 77.6 on January 7th – but has subsequently seen most sub-indices bounce back towards antecedent levels; with the Index sitting at 90.6 on February 7th.
Return To Office
- The Return to Office Sector Index for Newcastle picked up from 35.5 at the start of 2021 to levels as high as 71.3 on November 21st. There was a step change in activity following the loosening of restrictions in April as the Avison Young Office Occupancy Index picked up exponentially.
- The Index fell substantially following the latest work from home guidance issued in England on December 9th, from 63.5 to 39.2 on January 5th. Since this time, however, there has been a recovery in the volume of workers returning to the city centre; mirroring that which has been seen across major cities – with the Index sitting at 65.2 on February 7th.
UK CITIES RECOVERY INDEX
National Sector Indices + DART for Newcastle
A VIEW FROM NEWCASTLE
Gordon Hewling
Managing Director
Newcastle’s history of innovation and approach to public and private sector collaboration is driving its strong position and prediction that it can recover quicker than other cities, despite the announcement of further local restrictions. In the year leading up to the pandemic, it saw a record level of inward investment as one of the fastest growing economies in the UK and was lauded as the UK’s smartest city, recognising its approach to the innovative use of technology.
Overall, the pandemic has had a significant impact on Newcastle’s economy, with a rise in unemployment and a substantial number of furloughs. The city has assisted recovery through £100 million worth of grants and loans and will continue to support some of the worst hit sectors, businesses and people to reskill, retrain and innovate.
City Centre investment is underway, which is fundamental to the long-term future of the wider region given its role as the largest retail, leisure and employment centre in the North East. Many of the predictions for a post Covid-19 economy align with the region’s strengths in life science, AI, big data and tech. This will play a vital role in its recovery and in creating an inclusive and sustainable economy where people can live well for longer.
The city needs to build on these credentials to drive innovation, attract inward investment and create jobs for its people."
This index has been prepared by Avison Young for general information purposes only. Whilst Avison Young endeavours to ensure that the information in this index is correct it does not warrant completeness or accuracy. You should not rely on it without seeking professional advice. Avison Young assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions in this publication or other documents which are referenced by or linked to this index. To the maximum extent permitted by law and without limitation Avison Young excludes all representations, warranties and conditions relating to this report and the use of this index. All intellectual property rights are reserved and prior written permission is required from Avison Young to reproduce material contained in this index.