UK CITIES RECOVERY INDEX
London
Updated: 16th February
UK CITIES RECOVERY INDEX
Index + DART for London
Please view on a desktop for the full experience.
Overview
The Recovery Index for London has continually tracked below the national figure since this index began – with the capital inordinately impacted by travel restrictions hampering tourism, as well as having a working population which relies more heavily on mass transit than other areas of the country.
On February 7th, the London Index was registered at 75.6.9 compared to 83.1 for the National; with both gradually climbing following the sharp dip seen in mid-to-late December as the Omicron variant precipitated further lockdown measures.
UK CITIES RECOVERY INDEX
Sector Indices + DART for London
London Sector Indices
Commercial Activity
- The Commercial Activity Sector Index for London sits at 94.2 on February 7th – ahead of the national figure which is currently 89.1. These indicators tracked relatively similarly throughout 2020 and for most of 2021, but a resurgence in cargo ship visits to London (interrupted briefly by Omicron in December) has helped the capital outstrip the national figure more recently.
Hotel & Leisure
- After having recovered during in summer and early autumn 2021, the Hotels & Leisure Sector Index for London has suffered a little in recent months, with people understandably more reticent to recreate during a period in which the Omicron variant was spreading through London.
- Volatility within the index has been seen following key box office events. For example, the release of the new James Bond film in early October, underpinned an uptick to 95.1 as Box Office revenue spiked to 50% ahead of pre-Covid levels.
- Currently the London index for Hotel and Leisure is at 63.4 – which represents a small uptick from the depths of late December, when the index dropped from 93.0 on December 15th to 54.7 on December 30th as indoor socialising became less of a viable option for those keen to avoid catching the virus. Shoots of recovery are visible, however, with restaurant bookings noticeably climbing again since the new year.
Mobility
- After having peaked at 114.4 on November 27th, the mobility indicator for London suffered an almost immediate drop-off following the ‘work from home’ guidance issued in England on December 9th.
- The index fell as low as 72.7 on December 30th – a figure not seen since before the full roll-out of the UK’s vaccination program; as people avoided travelling during the depths of the Omicron wave.
- Since this point, however, life has started to flow back into the capital – with the index reading 98.8 on February 7th after the last month saw almost all sub-indices within the mobility index rebound sharply.
Residential
- London's Residential Sector Index currently sits at one of its lowest points since the initial sharp rebound seen in the market during the first Covid-19 lockdown – showing a figure of 83.1 as of February 7th. This is still ahead of the National Residential Index, which sits at 74.2 currently.
- This has been underpinned by a downturn in both listings and sales volumes on Zoopla over the last month or so – but a recent uptick in the number of new EPC registrations has counterbalanced some of that drop-off within the wider Index.
Retail
- After climbing gradually in the first half of 2021 – and stabilizing thereafter at around 77% of pre-Covid levels, the Retail Sector Index for London took a sharp nosedive in December, concurrently with the imposition of further restrictions.
- The nadir of this latest downturn came on December 31st with a figure of 64.8 recorded. Since this time, however, we have seen noticeable upticks in footfall and the Google mobility indices for recreation and travel for essentials; underpinning a rebound to 70.2 on February 7th.
Return To Office
- The RTO Sector Index for London is once again in recovery mode after another period of effective lockdown across December meant that white-collar workers largely stayed away from the central business districts of the capital.
- The index plummeted from 48.8 on December 9th (the day on which the work-from-home order was issued in England) to a seven-month low on January 1st, at 32.5. This is unsurprising due to the many bank holidays that occur during December as well as people choosing to stay at home to minimise the risk of catching the Covid-19 Omicron variant and having to cancel Christmas plans.
- However, since this low point, the index has seen an upturn across January – with workers now gradually returning to offices in line with the reduction in threat from the Omicron variant. The index sits at 46.7 on February 7th – almost a full recovery to the levels seen prior to the Omicron-induced lockdown.
UK CITIES RECOVERY INDEX
National Sector Indices + DART for London
A VIEW FROM LONDON
Ros Goode
Managing Director
“London is a global City, a centre of commerce, entertainment, arts, culture and tourism. Open and welcoming to all, the City is world ranking as a preferred place to live, work and play. With its reliance on visitors from abroad the effects of COVID-19 and lockdown have hit the hospitality, entertainment and retail sectors particularly hard. In terms of the West End and City, its professional business, financial services and technology sectors need to work very hard in tandem with local government and the Greater London Authority to ensure long lasting damage and irreplaceable losses do not impact upon its unrivalled status and reputation.
As London works through its growth prospects for the post COVID-19 recovery it must be mindful of its needs to ensure the wellbeing of its people is at the forefront of policy and decision making. Time is of the essence in ensuring we build forward positively and embrace the cultural and climatic changes required to ensure resilient and sustainable progress.”
This index has been prepared by Avison Young for general information purposes only. Whilst Avison Young endeavours to ensure that the information in this index is correct it does not warrant completeness or accuracy. You should not rely on it without seeking professional advice. Avison Young assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions in this publication or other documents which are referenced by or linked to this index. To the maximum extent permitted by law and without limitation Avison Young excludes all representations, warranties and conditions relating to this report and the use of this index. All intellectual property rights are reserved and prior written permission is required from Avison Young to reproduce material contained in this index.