Methodology

  1. Avison Young's UK Cities Recovery Index is compiled using a series of high-frequency (usually daily) local, regional and national datasets, selected from a variety of sources as indicators of different dimensions of city life. Most of these Indicator series are updated on a weekly or in some cases monthly basis. The data is then normalised and converted to an Index which is rebased to 100 at the end of February 2020. - Less frequent data has been interpolated to create a daily data series - All daily data has been then smoothed by calculating a 7-day trailing average - Data that exhibits seasonality is seasonally adjusted, in most cases by comparing it to the equivalent 7-day period the previous year.
  2. Not all datasets are available at city level, so in some cases the most appropriate regional data has been used as a proxy within a particular City Recovery Index. In some cases, where important indicators are not available at regional level, national indicators have been included in the City Recovery Index.
  3. Due to the varying frequency and occasional delays in publishing the data, the most recent period covered by the index is always likely to be “provisional”. However, “provisional” index numbers are subject to future revision which may be significant. Once the majority of the data within an Index is available, the Index will be confirmed; revisions may occur as further data becomes available, but such revisions are less likely to materially affect the index as a whole.
  4. A subset of indicators which are updated daily are grouped into a separate index named the Daily Activity Recovery Tracker (DART). Whilst not fully representative of the Index as a whole, the DART provides an early indication of the likely future trajectory of the Recovery Index to which it relates.
  5. Every effort has been made to ensure that the indices have been compiled as consistently as possible. However, many valuable indicators are specific to individual cities; and datasets vary widely across different countries within the UK. The emphasis has therefore been on identifying metrics which chart the experience of a city consistently and accurately across a particular dimension. Thus, for example, in assessing volumes of journeys to work, Underground passenger data is used in London whereas in other cities alternative metrics have been used that best monitor volumes of commuter arrivals in the city. Similarly, cargo ship activity may be used as a relevant industrial activity metric in port cities but is not included for other locations.
  6. As a result, great care should be taken when comparing sector indices and the overall Recovery Index across cities, particularly across national boundaries. Comparisons between the indices may remain valid and informative, but simple direct comparisons or rankings should be avoided.

UK Cities Recovery Index and associated Sector Indices incorporate data from the following sources:

Avison Young

Apple Mobility trends

CGA

Citymapper Mobility Index

Department for Transport

ENTSO-E

FlightRadar24

GfK Consumer confidence

Google Covid-19 Community Mobility Reports

Highways England

IHS Markit / CIPS UK Composite PMI

IMDBPro / Box Office Mojo

Merseytravel

Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government

Natwest UK Regional PMI

ONS

Opentable

Springboard

STR

TfL

Urban Observatory

Zoopla

This index has been prepared by Avison Young for general information purposes only. Whilst Avison Young endeavours to ensure that the information in this index is correct it does not warrant completeness or accuracy. You should not rely on it without seeking professional advice. Avison Young assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions in this publication or other documents which are referenced by or linked to this index. To the maximum extent permitted by law and without limitation Avison Young excludes all representations, warranties and conditions relating to this report and the use of this index. All intellectual property rights are reserved and prior written permission is required from Avison Young to reproduce material contained in this index.