Focus on... beyond lockdown
Updated: 14th April
We have used our UK Cities Recovery Index data to model a forecast trajectory for recovery from the third national lockdown. This utilises data from the impact and recovery in the two previous national lockdowns and various localised restrictions. Our model predicts that the Index will reach its ‘pre-Covid’ level on the 9th June. We expect the Index to rise by 40% during the first month of major restriction easing (12th April -17th May). Following the lifting of further restrictions in May we expect to see a more muted increase in the index of 10%. Importantly, we forecast the recovery to continue, in contrast to the two previous national lockdowns.
So far, we have applied this exercise to the headline Index but believe the logic is robust and will be producing forecasts across the cities we cover. Watch this space!
Avison Young UK Cities Recovery Index Forecast
House Scenario Assumptions
- Schools reopening gives equal impact as summer 2020
- Residential index removed as Land Registry remained open
- Non-essential retail reopening provides similar boost as summer 2020
- Initial hospitality reopening (under the rule of 6 and with outdoor table service only) impact is lesser than on 4th July 2020 due to limited capacity
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