National occupier outlook
Take-up
TOTAL TAKE-UP IN QUARTER (SQ FT)
CHANGE ON LAST QUARTER
CHANGE ON 10 YR QUARTERLY AVG
TAKE-UP (SQ FT)
Source: Avison Young
ANNUAL TAKE-UP
Source: Avison Young
Regional Big Nine take-up reached 2.2 million sq ft in Q4 2024, this is on par with the previous quarter and the 10-year average. Cardiff(+110%), Edinburgh(+169%) Glasgow(+1%) and Leeds(+2%) all saw above average take-up this quarter compared to the 10-year average.
This brings annual 2024 take-up to 7.9m sq ft, up 10% on 2023 levels. Whilst levels remain below the 10-year average of 8.6m sq ft, the annual increase indicates positive occupier sentiment, particularly from larger corporates. Indeed, 15 deals in excess of 50,000 sq ft completed last year in comparison to just five in 2023. The largest deal to complete in Q4 2024 was Lloyds 282,500 sq ft pre-let at Port Hamilton, Edinburgh. In addition to this, Lloyds also pre-let 110,000 sq ft at John Street, Cardiff, underpinning the banking giants commitment to the UK regions.
The Financial and Professional Services sectors acquired the most space in the Big Nine in 2024, accounting for an 18% share each. The subsector to see the biggest annual growth in take-up was Education and Training, which saw a 39% annual increase. The sector was particularly active in Birmingham with three of the largest Education deals of 2024 happening in the city; 190,000 sq ft at 10 Woodcock Street to Aston University, 70,000 sq ft at 1 Brindleyplace to Global Banking School and 45,000 sq ft at Broad Street to University College Birmingham. The repurposing of offices to suit education and training uses is a trend we expect to continue into 2025, particularly in those cities with high levels of vacant secondary stock.
Appetite for best-in-class space remains in high demand and short supply across the Big Nine city centres, this continues to drive strong levels of rental growth. 7 out of 9 city centres experienced annual rental growth last year bringing Big Nine average prime rental growth to 6.6%.
2024 Q4 TAKE-UP BY CITY
Source: Avison Young
NOTABLE DEALS – CITY CENTRE
Source: Avison Young
NOTABLE DEALS – OUT OF TOWN
Source: Avison Young
HEADLINE RENTS
Source: Avison Young
TAKE-UP BY SECTOR
Source: Avison Young
RENTAL GROWTH
Source: Avison Young
Vacancy
VACANCY RATE
CHANGE ON LAST QUARTER
CHANGE ON LAST YEAR
AVAILABILITY (SQ FT)
Source: CoStar, Avison Young
The availability rate across the Big Nine city centre markets increased to 8.7% in Q4 from 7.9% in Q3, this is in-line with the 10-year average vacancy rate of 8.8%.
The Edinburgh market remains the most supply constrained with overall availability of 4.1% and Grade A availability of 0.6%. Birmingham (10.2%), Bristol (10.6%) and Glasgow (10.2%) have the highest levels of availability overall however continue to experience low levels of Grade A supply with 2.2%, 3.4% and 2.2%, respectively.
AVAILABILITY BY CITY
Source: CoStar, Avison Young
Development pipeline
UNDER CONSTRUCTION PIPELINE (SQ FT)
Source: Avison Young
2024 saw a total of 2.6m sq ft of developments completed, up 39% on 2023 and ahead of 2.4m sq ft of annual average levels of deliveries seen over the last 10 years. 2024 saw refurbishments take a 38% share of development activity, up from 24% in 2023. We expect this trend to continue into 2025 as developers look to provide modern, environmentally friendly and safe office spaces, whilst looking to reduce their carbon footprints and control development costs.
We expect to see supply shortages in 2025 with 36% of the 2m sq ft due for completion this year already pre-let.
DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE (SQ FT)
Source: Glenigan, Property Market Analysis, Avison Young
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