Investors are focusing on what the 'new normal’ might bring.

The pandemic continues to affect almost every aspect of our work and personal lives, in ways that potentially have far-reaching consequences for real estate assets. Investors are used to operating in an unprecedented ‘lower for longer’ interest rate environment that will persist for many years. However, the economic stimulus measures being considered by governments across the globe offer some interesting investor opportunities.


While core real estate undoubtedly faces challenges from a weakened economy, a substantial volume of capital is targeting the sector in search of the yield and return profile that prime real estate can offer102, 103. As was evident during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), many investors are looking to seize the chance to acquire real estate at advantageous prices under an expectation that there will be distress. Whether, and to what extent, this distress will materialize remains to be seen104. In the meantime, investors are focusing on what the 'new normal’ might bring.

Some of the most interesting opportunities may emerge from the stimulus plans being discussed by governments seeking ways to boost economic recovery. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank have strongly urged countries to use the current low interest rate environment to spend on infrastructure to reinvigorate their economies105, given the strong correlation between infrastructure investment and economic output106. This is in sharp contrast to the policies of austerity and spending cuts that were advocated in the years following the GFC107. It mirrors the thinking behind the Marshall Plan implemented in post-war Europe – and the approach adopted in China in response to the GFC. With interest rates so low, the cost of servicing the enormous levels of debt currently being incurred is lower than it would have been in the past when the total debt was far smaller.

Political leaders around the world have been setting out significant infrastructure programmes. The U.K. pledged to invest heavily in infrastructure spending both before108 and at the outset of the crisis109 and since then, has committed to expanding the program110, 111. The Canadian government has committed to significant investment in infrastructure112, and similar plans featured prominently in both candidates’ campaigns during the recent U.S. Presidential election.

The profile of income generated is typically attractive to core investors.

The term ‘infrastructure’ immediately conjures images of roads and bridges, and transport improvements could well form part of the plan – albeit more light rail systems and electric vehicle charging points than more traditional types of construction. The current focus centres around the type of investments seen as critical to fostering economic growth in the coming decades. Three areas stand out:

Digital infrastructure

The pandemic has highlighted the importance of digital connectivity - and the deficiencies that still exist in many broadband networks. Our digital infrastructure still needs significant investment, with data centres an important element113 and local governments around the world investing to become ’smart cities’114. Government stimulus is likely to focus heavily on digital infrastructure115, including 5G networks and building upgrades116.

Social and medical infrastructure

The pandemic has understandably led to a focus on medical facilities and life sciences. Venture capital funding for medical research has increased substantially, with medical infrastructure and R&D spending now increasingly seen as relevant to national security117 and demand for lab space likely to increase. The rise of social infrastructure up the agenda118 will see more opportunities for public-private investment in schools, hospitals and elderly living facilities.

Green infrastructure

Given the focus on climate change that we discuss elsewhere119, it is hardly surprising that many governments view this as the ideal time to kick-start the significant investment needed in response to the climate crisis120. Initiatives range from ensuring that infrastructure is climate change resilient to the generation of solar, wind and battery energy as well as supporting electrification, retrofitting buildings and helping industries decarbonise.

Social and medical infrastructure

The term ‘infrastructure’ immediately conjures images of roads and bridges, and transport improvements could well form part of the plan – albeit more light rail systems and electric vehicle charging points than more traditional types of construction. The current focus centres around the type of investments seen as critical to fostering economic growth in the coming decades. Three areas stand out:

Digital infrastructure - The pandemic has highlighted the importance of digital connectivity - and the deficiencies that still exist in many broadband networks. Our digital infrastructure still needs significant investment, with data centres an important element113 and local governments around the world investing to become ’smart cities’114. Government stimulus is likely to focus heavily on digital infrastructure115, including 5G networks and building upgrades116.

Social and medical infrastructure – The pandemic has understandably led to a focus on medical facilities and life sciences. Venture capital funding for medical research has increased substantially, with medical infrastructure and R&D spending now increasingly seen as relevant to national security117 and demand for lab space likely to increase. The rise of social infrastructure up the agenda118 will see more opportunities for public-private investment in schools, hospitals and elderly living facilities.

Green infrastructure – Given the focus on climate change that we discuss elsewhere119, it is hardly surprising that many governments view this as the ideal time to kick-start the significant investment needed in response to the climate crisis120. Initiatives range from ensuring that infrastructure is climate change resilient to the generation of solar, wind and battery energy as well as supporting electrification, retrofitting buildings and helping industries decarbonise.

Digital infrastructure
Green infrastructure

Infrastructure is a broad swath of investment opportunities rather than a clearly defined sector in its own right. However, the profile of income generated is typically attractive to core investors seeking stable long-term returns. Many of the new opportunities emerging will be unlocked by government initiatives that increasingly embed principles of social value and public-private partnership into the investment process. While that may be a disincentive to some, for others it will be part of the attraction.

And, last but not least

Footnotes

image

Privacy Policy | Terms of Use | © 2020 Avison Young (Canada) Inc. All rights reserved.

image
image
image
image